Congratulations on the Pittsburgh Pirates clinching a 2027 World Series berth. Okay, maybe 2028. Regardless, order your tickets now!
By that point, all of the guys the Pirates drafted in the first few rounds of this week’s 2021 Major League Baseball draft should be with the big league club. Most of them will be about 24 years old.
Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Gerrit Cole and Starling Marte were all around that age when they were called up to the majors. They got to the playoffs together in 2013.
Sunday’s first-round pick, Louisville catcher Henry Davis, will be a little older. He’ll be 27 or 28. Let’s hope he is not traded yet. Sure, the likes of Cole, Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove were all moved by roughly then. But it’ll be different for Davis.
Right. He’ll be different. Of … course … he …. will.
And this group of 2021 draft prospects will be different, too.
At least, that’s what the seamheads, Pirates optimists, Buccos diehards and MLB prospect-pimps insist.
The Pirates, Marlins, and Red Sox have absolutely hit home runs in the early part of this draft. Plenty of picks to go, but a great start.
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) July 12, 2021
The Pirates drafted their top ranked guy with Henry Davis and got a steal at 37 in Anthony Solometo – it just so happened that the organizations’ three biggest needs got addressed in those two picks (catcher, power bat, LHP). Couldn’t ask for a better start to the draft for BC
— Pirates Talk (@PITPiratesChat) July 12, 2021
When you finally see the BIG PICTURE of this years draft for the Pirates it all makes sense. Henry Davis might not be the best player in the draft but he was the best for the Pirates and it also will allow them to sign their top 4 picks @KDKA
— Rich Walsh KDKA (@RichieWalsh) July 12, 2021
The @Pirates have made four picks so far.
They’ve taken four of the 32 best prospects in the draft
Pittsburgh off to a hot start on day two. https://t.co/j5X6TFPXkr pic.twitter.com/bj2csu8km5
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) July 12, 2021
That last tweet is from the same outlet that had the Pirates taking Jordan Lawlar No. 1, as recently as last week. Lawlar didn’t go until No. 6 with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Don’t worry. I’m sure they got Monday’s tweet right.
If the Pirates sign their top 4 picks in the draft and get a good return in terms of prospects for Adam Frazier, I don’t think it’s crazy to think that their farm system could be the top ranked in baseball after this year.
— Kraig Riley (@KraigRiley) July 12, 2021
Yup, the Pirates nailed the draft. They were smart to “go under slot” on the projected signing bonus with Davis as the first-round pick. Why pay the most for the most proven prospect in the country (Vanderbilt pitcher Jack Leiter), when you can pay a little bit more for the 37th (Anthony Solometo), 64th (Lonnie White Jr.) and 72nd (Bubba Chandler) picks combined?
That’s the code. The Pirates cracked it. Not the other 29 teams in MLB, but the franchise that has had four winning seasons since 1992. They’ve got it figured out. And it’s just a matter of another measly half decade or so until they prove all of us doubters wrong.
I mean, I remember when Jason Schmidt, Kris Benson and Bobby Bradley were supposed to be the top three of a playoff rotation. Granted, that paled in comparison with how the 2005 rotation was going to look when Ian Snell and John Van Benschoten (did he become a position player yet?) joined Kip Wells, Oliver Perez and Ryan Vogelsong. Or when Cole, Taillon, Stetson Allie (did he become a position player yet?) and Tyler Glasnow were going to mow down the National League.
Oh, I still have my “3-D bobblehead” of (Zach) Duke, (Chris) Duffy and (Ryan) Doumit sitting under my Cutch-Marte-Gregory Polanco “Dream Outfield” poster.
None of that past is prologue I assume, though, correct?
You see, this year it’s just about the rankings of the draft. It’s got nothing to do with how the talent is developed. Or how long the organization is willing to retain that talent before selling its prospects to another club. Or the budget to add major league help to keep the window open toward contention.
Are you picking up on my sarcasm? In the words of David Spade in “Tommy Boy,” “Good. ‘Cause I’m laying it on pretty thick.”
Pirates already have the #4 ranked farm system in the MLB, have absolutely nailed the draft and have Adam Frazier who’s gonna bring in even more prospects. Future is bright, very very bright. pic.twitter.com/JPg4As5vvz
— chris ➌(@chrisburgh) July 12, 2021
Great. What do top farm system rankings get you?
As much as NCAA recruiting rankings do. Steelers fans tell me they win the draft every year, and they have gone eight of the last 10 years without a playoff victory.
Look, if general manager Ben Cherington wants to spread out the signing-pool money, fine. Go ahead.
I simply wanted Leiter as the No. 1 pick as opposed to Davis. That said, I preferred Davis to Lawlar or fellow high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer. Going with a strong-armed, heavy-hitting catcher with a clear path to the majors instead of throwing even more talent at the Pirates’ already crowded middle-infield system is a better second choice.
What I don’t understand is the presumption of success for a franchise that has earned zero benefit-of-the-doubt points. What I cringe at are assessments that the Pirates were wise to pass on pitchers such as Leiter and Vanderbilt teammate Kumar Rocker.
But Solometo? Well, obviously “he’s a steal.”
This is a club that drafts high just about every year yet has made the playoffs a grand total of six times since 1979. Knowing that, I’m supposed to believe in their tactic of holding back money to the best possible prospect — i.e. Leiter, whom the Texas Rangers selected No. 2 instead of the hometown kid Lawlar — in order to spread cash around to more options in hopes of a greater collective?
Because their track record is so darned good, I suppose?
However, those of us who are skeptical are labeled the dumb ones — for trusting our eyes on approximately three decades of history.
So, please save this column for October 2027 or 2028. Subtweet it with a snarky “told ya, so” before Game 1 in Boston against the Red Sox.
I hope that happens. I want to be wrong. I want Baseball America and all the future prospectors to be right. I want the Pirates to be good again. I crave it.
Unfortunately, I’ve earned my cynicism and my desire for evidence before I renew my faith in whatever process that team is preaching.
Here’s the thing about the prospect-ranking crowd. Deep down inside, they feel the same way. Which is why it’s easier to celebrate something that isn’t earned. Just celebrate a subjective ranking and a theoretical future that has yet to be determined. That way you can never lose.
Except on the field in the big league stadiums. That’s something we have seen for quite a while now.
See you at the 2022 draft when the Pirates might claim another title.
Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@triblive.com or via Twitter. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication unless specified otherwise.
