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The three concerns Hinshaw expressed are the serious impact this would have on older or at-risk Albertans, the fact that death is not the only severe outcome and the lack of knowledge about immunity to the novel coronavirus.
In Alberta, the risk of death for a person with COVID-19 is about 18 per cent for those over 70 years old, less than half a per cent for those between 40 and 69, and “vanishingly small” for those under the age of 40.
Yet, because COVID-19 is able to spread rapidly and people are all interconnected, adopting the herd immunity approach would have a “serious and deadly impact on many people in the population,” Hinshaw said.
Even if there were perfect restrictions at long-term care facilities and the virus was free to spread elsewhere, it couldn’t be fully prevented from entering those centres.
The more community transmission, the greater the risk to the province’s older and at-risk populations, Hinshaw said.
Thirty per cent of those over 80 years old with COVID-19 in long-term care have died in Alberta. This drops to 18 per cent if that senior is living in the community.
One in every 67 people between the ages of 20 and 39 who is diagnosed with COVID-19 has required hospital care. This rises to one in every 18 people between the ages of 40 to 69, and one in every four for those over the age of 70.
“Death is not the only severe outcome,” said Hinshaw.
“If we let the virus spread freely, our healthcare system could be overwhelmed with caring for COVID-19 patients which would challenge our ability to provide all other health services.”
