The top spot in the NFC South is up for grabs in a primetime matchup down in the Sunshine State. It’s the second battle of the season between Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints as they head on the road to face Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday night. New Orleans clawed out a 26-23 overtime win on the road over Chicago last Sunday in their previous contest. Tampa Bay hung on for a 25-23 road win over the Giants in their previous contest on Monday night. The Saints own a 36-21 advantage in the all-time regular-season series between the teams and have won the last four matchups. That includes a 34-23 victory in the season opener for both teams, which came in New Orleans on September 13.
(Late line movements and injury reports were updated Sunday morning.)
Line Movements:
There has been a little movement toward the visitors in regards to the line in this contest. This game opened as the Buccaneers as a 4.5-point favorite but currently, the Bucs stand as a four or 4.5-point favorite in the contest, depending on what sportsbook you frequent. 51 percent of the bets ATS are backing New Orleans, on the road, with the points in this NFC South showdown.
The over/under has dropped precipitously in this contest as well. After opening at 55.5, the total has trended down to 50.5 or 51 points at the majority of sportsbooks for this one. 57 percent of the wagers on the total in this contest are of the mindset that this one ends up going over the total.
Game-time Weather: It should be a pretty nice night in the Sunshine State for this game. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be in the mid-70s with cloudy skies. There is a 35 percent chance of showers at kickoff and that number bounces as high as 55 percent around 10 pm ET so there could be some rain around halftime. There will be some wind in the forecast as they are projected from the east-northeast around 13 miles per hour with the gusts kicking up around the 16 miles per hour mark.
New Orleans Saints Seeking Season Sweep of Bucs
New Orleans earned their fourth straight win by beating the Bears on the road in overtime last week. The Saints now look to sweep the Buccaneers and move into first place in the NFC South while extending their win streak. Against Chicago, the game was a streaky one as the Saints scored first to take a 3-0 lead before giving up 13 unanswered points to trail by 10. New Orleans rallied to reel off 20 unanswered points to take a 10-point lead but gave up 10 points in the final 3:32 of regulation to force overtime. In the extra session, after both teams punted once, the Saints went 52 yards in seven plays, setting up Wil Lutz’s game-winning 35-yard field goal to secure the victory. New Orleans owned a 394-329 edge in total offense, picked up 23 first downs while allowing 18 and controlled the clock by a 35:15 to 33:09 margin. For good measure, the Saints forced the lone turnover in the game.
Davenport, Davis + Jenkins, Jordan, Onyemata, Hendrickson.
5️⃣ sacks from the #Saints D-Line in Chicago 💥 pic.twitter.com/8TBuAJxEcq
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 2, 2020
On the year, the Saints stand seventh in the league in passing offense with 266.6 yards per game through the air. New Orleans is 14th in the league in rushing offense as they grind out 119.4 yards per contest. The Saints stand seventh in scoring offense as they put up an average of 29.4 points per game. New Orleans is just 23rd in scoring defense by allowing 28.1 points a contest. Drew Brees is the man under center once again for the Saints and he continues to defy Father Time, completing 185 of 253 passes for 1,898 yards with 13 touchdown passes against three interceptions this season. He has been sacked nine times, losing 70 yards, while he has punched in a pair of scores on the ground. The ground game is fairly evenly split between the dynamic Alvin Kamara (87 carries, 431 yards, four TD) and the bulldozer Latavius Murray (71 carries, 282 yards, two scores) though backup QB/utility guy Taysom Hill adds 87 yards and a score as well. It’s been a rough season for receivers for the Saints as Michael Thomas has been out since week one with a high ankle sprain while Emmanuel Sanders (26 catches, 304 yards, two TD) has been out lately due to being on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Both are expected to play this week.
Kamara leads the team with 55 grabs for 566 yards and three touchdowns. Tre’Quan Smith (25 catches, 291 yards, two TD) and tight end Jared Cook (19 receptions, 249 yards, four TD) are solid options in the passing game as well. Wil Lutz has booted all 23 extra points and 15 of 16 field-goal attempts with a long of 53 on the year.
New Orleans is going to have to find a way to move the ball against a stingy Tampa Bay defense. In the first meeting, the Saints totaled only 271 yards of offense (189 passing, 82 rushing) but won by double digits mainly because of their success in the takeaway/giveaway department. The Saints forced three turnovers while not committing one in the contest. One of those takeaways was a pick-six while a second set the Saints up at the Tampa Bay 35, leading to a score. New Orleans also recovered a fumble on a kick return to set up a field goal and blocked a long attempt by Tampa Bay.
New Orleans Saints Injury Report:
OUT: CB Johnson Bademosi, DT Jalen Dalton, WR Bennie Fowler, P Blake Gillikin, DB Justin Hardee, DT Sheldon Rankins, DE Noah Spence, TE Jason Vander Laan, TE Cole Wick
Questionable: LB Chase Hansen
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Shoot to Earn Season Split
Tampa Bay had a scare thrown into them by the lowly Giants but managed to escape with a victory on Monday night. The Buccaneers have outscored their opposition 108-53 in their three-game win streak but have to play better than they did in the first meeting with New Orleans, not to mention how they played Monday, if they want to beat the Saints. Against New York, Tampa Bay trailed 7-3 after the opening quarter, 14-6 at the half and 17-15 after three quarters. The Buccaneers rallied to take a 25-17 lead with 3:41 to play before allowing the Giants to drive 70 yards in 13 plays to find the end zone. Tampa Bay survived when a two-point conversion pass that would have tied the game fell incomplete. There was a flag originally for defensive pass interference but it was picked up, saving the victory. The Buccaneers were outgained 357-344 in the game, gave up 24 first downs while picking up 23 and held a narrow 30:10 to 29:50 edge in time of possession. Tampa Bay forced two turnovers while committing only one in the contest.
6⃣-2⃣ and on to the next one ⏪ pic.twitter.com/6WtazTCTdh
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) November 5, 2020
The Buccaneers are eighth in the league in passing offense as they generate 265.8 yards per game through the air. Tampa Bay stands 23rd in rushing offense with an average of 102.6 yards per contest. The Buccaneers are fourth in the league in scoring offense with an average of 30.9 points per game. Tampa Bay stands seventh in scoring defense as they allow 20.6 points per contest. Tom Brady has completed 204 of 308 passes for 2,189 yards with 20 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times for 63 yards in losses. Ronald Jones II leads Tampa Bay on the ground as he has run the ball 117 times for 529 yards and four scores this season. Leonard Fournette has chipped in 50 carries for 225 yards and two scores in his action. Mike Evans leads the team with 30 receptions for 373 yards and seven scores on the year. Jones II (22 grabs, 109 yards), Gronkowski (26 catches, 321 yards, three TD), Scottie Miller (25 receptions, team-high 400 yards, two TD) and Chris Godwin (25 grabs, 279 yards, two TD) are all valuable targets for Brady to look for in the passing game. Godwin expects to return this week after having surgery for a broken finger while recently signed Antonio Brown is expected to make his debut this week as well.
Tampa Bay has relied on their stout defense this season and they are good at generating takeaways. The Buccaneers have 11 interceptions and three fumble recoveries on the season. Their week one loss to the Saints marked the only game where they haven’t forced at least one takeaway all season. That could go a long way toward helping tilt the scales in their favor. Tampa Bay has been better about giving the ball away since that point: after turning the ball over three times against the Saints and five times in their first two games, they have just three giveaways in the last six contests. The Buccaneers are going to try to generate pressure on Brees in an effort to get him, and the Saints’ offense, off the field.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injury Report:
OUT: LB Jack Cichy, S Justin Evans, WR John Franklin, TE O.J. Howard, RB T.J. Logan, G Ali Marpet, T Brad Seaton, DL Vita Vea
Questionable: LB Jason Pierre-Paul
