In one of the closest battles for a No. 1 seed in recent memory, Kansas used a late push to vault ahead and claim a top seed on the eve of Selection Sunday.
The Jayhawks (28-6, 14-4) escaped Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament final Saturday to acquire their 12th Quadrant 1 victory of the season. That number leads the nation in the NCAA’s metric for quality wins. Kansas leapfrogged fellow blue-blood Kentucky, which lost to Tennessee in the SEC tournament semifinals and consequently fell to the No. 2 line in the final bracketology projection.
Kansas also beat out Big 12 foe Baylor, which exited the league tourney early with an upset loss to Oklahoma. The Jayhawks and Bears (26-6, 14-4) join Gonzaga and Arizona as the four No. 1s set to be announced during the Selection Sunday show (6 p.m. ET on CBS). For the second consecutive year, the Bulldogs (26-3, 13-1 West Coast Conference) will claim the top overall seed, while Arizona (31-3, 18-2 Pac-12) finished strong with a Pac-12 tournament title win over UCLA to be positioned to claim the second top seed.
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Joining Kentucky at the No. 2 seed line is SEC foe Auburn, which held a top seed in the NCAA’s top-16 reveal several weeks ago but lost three of its last six and featured a NET score outside the top 10. Tennessee’s SEC tournament win on Sunday helped the Vols jump up to the No. 2 line alongside Big East tournament champ Villanova.
ACC regular-season champ Duke was at one point close to the No. 1 seed line before falling to Virginia Tech in the ACC tourney final. The Blue Devils fell to the No. 3 seed line right at the last minute and that can largely be credited to a down year in the ACC, which worked against the program notching a top seed in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final season.
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While the Big Ten had an excellent season as a whole with nine forecasted bids, none of its top teams are likely to acquire a top-2 seed on Selection Sunday, with Wisconsin and Purdue (projected No. 3 seeds) not finishing strong enough. The Big Ten may win the bubble, however, with Indiana and Rutgers among the borderline teams expected to squeeze into the field of 68 – beating out other chasing bubble teams that have been sweating it out up until now.
The loser of the bubble is undoubtedly the Atlantic 10, and the NIT’s top seeds may be from the mid-major conference. Dayton, VCU and Saint Louis all had solid credentials but got leapfrogged by power conference teams.
No. 1 seeds
Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor.
Last four in
Wyoming, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Rutgers.
First four out
Michigan, Xavier, SMU, BYU.
Next four out
Dayton, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, VCU.
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Others considered for at-large bids: St. John’s, Florida, Colorado, Santa Clara, Saint Louis.
Multi-bid conferences: Big Ten (8), SEC (7), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), Pac-12 (3), West Coast (3), American Athletic (2).
Leaders or highest NET from projected one-bid conferences – (23 total): Atlantic 10 – Davidson; America East – Vermont; Atlantic Sun – Jacksonville State; Big Sky – Montana State; Big South – Longwood; Big West – Cal State Fullerton; CAA – Delaware; C-USA – UAB; Horizon – Wright State; Ivy League – Princeton; MAAC – St. Peter’s; MAC – Akron; MEAC – Norfolk State; Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago; Northeast – Bryant; Ohio Valley – Murray State; Patriot – Colgate; Southern – Chattanooga; Southland – Texas A&M-CC; SWAC – Texas Southern; Summit – South Dakota State; Sun Belt – Georgia State; WAC – New Mexico State.
- Ineligible schools: Oklahoma State (banned), Cal Baptist, North Alabama, Merrimack, Dixie State, Tarleton State, Bellarmine, UC San Diego, St. Thomas.
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NCAA Tournament language explainer:
- NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
- Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
- Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
- Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
- Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET
Note: Most statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NET rankings (NCAA Evaluation Tool) also are a reference point.
About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his ninth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past eight NCAA Tournaments. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.
About our college basketball reporter: Scott Gleeson has covered men’s college basketball for USA TODAY since 2012, contributing to bracketology and running Bubble Tracker before tackling everything March Madness following Selection Sunday. He correctly forecasted Virginia would win the national championship in 2019 before the season began and also picked Loyola-Chicago as a Cinderella mid-major in 2018. Follow him on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.
