The New England Patriots will try to continue their dominance over the Buffalo Bills when they meet in a key AFC East matchup on Monday Night Football. The Patriots (8-4), who are riding a six-game winning streak, have dominated Buffalo since 2000, going 35-8 against their division-rivals. The Bills (7-4) are looking for their second consecutive division title and appeared to be well on their way after a 4-1 start to the season, but are just 3-3 since. The Bills swept last year’s season series with New England for the first time since 1999. Buffalo will be without Tre’Davious White, an All-Pro corner, who tore his ACL last Thursday.
Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a three-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 41. Before you make any Patriots vs. Bills picks or Monday Night Football predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine’s top NFL expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2021 campaign, Hartstein was 351-291 all-time on NFL sides, including 326-280 against the spread. He is returning more than $2,200 for $100 bettors and is SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert on a 53-26 roll. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has locked in on Bills vs. Patriots from every angle and released a confident against-the-spread pick. You can visit SportsLine now to see it. Here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Bills:
- Patriots vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -3
- Patriots vs. Bills over-under: 41 points
- Patriots vs. Bills money line: New England +125, Buffalo -145
- NE: Patriots are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall
- BUF: Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in December
Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Why the Bills can cover
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is coming off a big game in a 31-6 win at New Orleans on Thanksgiving night. He completed a career-high 82.1 percent of his passes for 260 yards and four touchdowns for a 115.2 rating. He also rushed for 43 yards. He will be looking for his fourth game in a row overall and sixth game in a row against a division opponent with two or more touchdown passes. He has a 115 or better rating in two of his past three games.
Also looking to have a big night is running back Matt Breida, who had 55 yards from scrimmage, including 29 receiving, and a touchdown last week. He’ll try for his fourth game in a row with 50 or more yards from scrimmage and has a receiving touchdown in two of his last three games. Breida rushed for 86 yards in his last game against the Patriots on Dec. 20, 2020, when he was a member of the Miami Dolphins. He has 125 or more yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in two of his past three games on Monday Night Football.
Why the Patriots can cover
Despite that, Buffalo is not a lock to cover the Patriots vs. Bills spread. That’s because New England has been on a roll in large part due to the play of rookie quarterback Mac Jones. He continues to impress, as he has completed 268-of-381 passes (70.3 percent) for 2,850 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has been intercepted eight times, but has a rating of 97.1. Jones was dominant in the win over Tennessee last Sunday, completing 23-of-32 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns.
Also making an impact on offense is wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. He has a team-leading 59 receptions for 620 yards (10.5 average) and one touchdown. He has nine explosive plays and has converted 31 first downs. Meyers caught five passes for 98 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Titans and has at least four receptions in 11 of 12 games this year.
How to make Patriots vs. Bills picks
Hartstein is leaning over on the point total, and he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, along with his Bills vs. Patriots picks, at SportsLine.
So who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football? And what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on, all from the top-rated expert who returned more than $2,200 to $100 players entering the 2021 season, and find out.
