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TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE SPOKESMAN’S STATEMENT
“President Tsai, upon receiving the news, sent her best wishes to the US government via diplomatic channels, hoping that President Trump and his wife can recover at an early date under the professional care of the medical team.”
SHANE OLIVER, HEAD OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY, AMP CAPITAL, SYDNEY
“There might be a sympathy vote for Trump if he gets the coronavirus.
“The market’s already a little bit on edge because of the upcoming election and the failure of talks to result in a new fiscal stimulus.
“You can imagine all sorts of scenarios here. If he tests positive and then just shows mild symptoms, it will be over in a few days. If he gets ill and has to go to hospital, the market will be a lot more concerned. Obviously, to the extent campaigning comes to a halt, it might increase fears that he might lose the election.
“Generally speaking, the market prefers the incumbent to win and the general preference has been for Trump to win because he will mean lower taxes and less regulation than a Biden presidency.
“But the whole issue around fiscal stimulus is complicated because, if Trump loses and the Democrats win and they get control of the Senate and the House, it makes fiscal stimulus assured, which will offset the impact of the tax hikes. The market would probably be happy to see a Biden presidency with a clean sweep.”
NAOYA OSHIKUBO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, SUMITOMO MITSUI TRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT
“Trump has been trailing behind Biden and he has clearly failed to narrow the gap after the first debate, which is the most important of the three debates. I suspect markets will lean towards the view that Biden will likely win the election.
“What I am worried is that he will become even more aggressive against China after he caught the virus himself, for I got the impression that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has become more anti-China after he had COVID-19.
“For the time being it will be difficult for financial markets to be in a risk-on mood.”
